Cliff Bleszinkzki, the guy from Epic that many gamers love to hate, gave a talk at GDC 2012's Microtalk session called "One Hour, Ten Voices, Countless Ideas." Each Microtalk lasted no longer than 5 minutes, 20 seconds so they could all fit in the hour. Cliff's Microtalk addressed aspiring game designers.
Actually, he approached it like he was talking to himself before he ever got into game design. He said that if he could go back in time he'd tell himself to shy away from console-based digital distribution - in the early years at least. He said "skip" XBL and SEN, as "Sony and Microsoft control what's on the dashboard," meaning that unless they choose to push your little game you will be SOL.
But why stop there? Bleszinski took the time to take a swipe at other platforms as well. He said aspiring devs should avoid iOS (though he gave no reason why), Android (it has "too much piracy"), and Windows Phone ("no one has one").
In the end, he recommended the tried-and-true PC...for the first-time developer at least. He still says that once you are established you should venture onto consoles.